Hey track & field fans! TrackTown USA Throws Ambassador Kara Winger here to break down all the drama in the upcoming women’s discus final.

Olympic Trials is always brutal in one way or another, and while media focus has revolved around Athing Mu’s fall in the 800m final, the women’s throws have quietly been completely shaken up as well.

The two women who were the first to make a podium together in the women’s hammer, and did so at Hayward Field, will not be on the Olympic Team. Brooke Andersen, the 2022 World Champion and current World Leader in the event, and Janee’ Kassanavoid, two-time World Medalist (bronze in Eugene and silver in Budapest in 2023), did not finish top 3 in Sunday’s final. Then, on Monday, Laulauga Tausaga, 2023 World Champion and the second-best discus thrower in U.S. history, sector fouled all three of her qualifying round throws, eliminating her shot at a Paris bid.

But others’ dreams came true (Annette Echikunwoke’s hammer victory is my favorite throws moment of Trials so far, Ryan Crouser’s strong return to the shotput ring coupled with Joe Kovacs’s willingness to admit he has added fuel to a frustrated fire was great), and still more will realize Olympic-sized ones when the women’s discus final is contested on Thursday. Let’s take a closer look.

The Hayward Field facility record holder rewrote that line in the book with her one and only effort of the day: Valarie Allman’s 70.89m first round throw of qualifying made waves all around the stadium on Monday, and her celebration of it kept the party going. Even though that mark is just the second furthest in the world this year, Val boasts three of the four marks so far over 69m. She rocketed to 70m distances in 2020, and has not looked back, but only added ridiculous consistency AND pushed her top level higher each season. The defending Olympic Champion has expressed a lot of joy in 2024, and appears to be handling the pressure of that title defense very, very well. If history is to repeat itself like it did in the qualifying round (Val set the former stadium record in qualifying at the 2021 Trials), we’re in for another 70m effort on Thursday, and likely another Olympic Gold for the American Record holder.

The second of two athletes in this final who owns an Olympic Standard distance of 64.50m is Veronica Fraley, 2023 World Championships team member and 2024 NCAA Champion in this event. Veronica threw a big personal best of 67.17m in Oklahoma in April, and has made the Hayward Field ring her home, with her 63.66m NCAA title throw earlier this month and a solid showing in qualifying on Monday with two 62m efforts. She looks to be a strong contender for an Olympic spot indeed.

Two athletes within striking distance of the World Rankings necessary to qualify for Paris are Jayden Ulrich (currently sitting in 30th) and Elena Bruckner (37th).

Jayden, the Louisville rising Senior, has made a 5-meter PB jump this year, from 59m to 64.29m, but in her first season as a 60m discus thrower, only has one competition out of 8 below the 60m line. Remarkable consistency for not only a young athlete, but one who has made such a significant improvement in one year. Her 63.61m mark from qualifying is her lifetime second-best, but she had a 63m effort to earn second at the NCAA Championships out of this very ring as well, giving her all the confidence coming into the Olympic Trials final. Once the Performance Score from Jayden’s qualifying round effort is added to her World Athletics Ranking Score, she should get bumped up to 25th or 26th on the Road to Paris list, making her Olympic opportunity very, very real.

Elena, teammate of Val and Veronica’s in Budapest in 2023, was just a meter short of her personal best with 61.35m in qualifying on Monday, and will look to build on that momentum as she needs more Ranking Points to crack the top 32, or the standard. Lanie’s 62.38m PB and some consistency this year means she could absolutely get this done! See below for more on that

In order of World Rank right now, the other eight finalists in the women’s discus are Shelby Frank (48th, also 8th in the women’s hammer final Sunday), Micaela Hazlewood (50th, she got silver at this meet three years ago), Jordyn Bryant (55th, one of two Fresno State athletes in this final, so cool), Kaia Harris (68th), Cierra Jackson (72nd, the other Fresno State thrower), Erika Beistle (102nd, had a 61.68m PB in qualifying that would move her up to about 76th), Kat Moody (110th, qualifying will bump her up to about 86th), and Alexandra Freeman (who was not on Road to Paris as of Tuesday but I believe it might be because she just switched her affiliation from American Samoa to the United States and some paperwork is necessary. She should be around 96th).

This event is such an exciting mix of post-collegiate, still-finding-their-way athletes, fresh NCAA talent, and an irrefutable star. Something to keep in mind as you watch is that, in the eyes of USATF and the USOPC, the selection system treats Olympic Standards the same as World Rankings, so if an athlete that has the standard is beaten by someone who is within, or climbs to within the Top 32 of the World Rankings within the qualification period (ending Sunday), the person with the ranking is selected over the standard holder. Three spots are up for grabs.

By way of introducing you to these athletes, I’d like to present the math needed for one person to climb the rankings enough to be Top 32, and share the framework for my calculations so that you may extrapolate! Go forth and math, and cheer on your favorite women’s discus throwers really, really specifically

Elena Bruckner. Currently ranked 37th with a Ranking Score of 1125 from her top 5 meets: A personal best of 62.38m in Fresno, 59m and third at the USATF Throws Festival, 60m and second at the Iron Wood Classic, a 62m victory in Oklahoma, and bronze at Harry Jerome with 58.81m, which resulted in a Performance Score of 1119. That Harry Jerome result is the fifth of Lanie’s Top 5, and since the qualifying round here, at a B meet, doesn’t result in any Placing Scores, her 61.35m toss in qualifying only earns her a 1096 Result Score and doesn’t replace her fifth Top 5 mark (it is lower than the current 1119).

In order to bring her Ranking Score (the average of her Top 5 Performance Scores between July 1, 2023 and June 30, 2024) up to the ~1141 points necessary to be ~30th on the World Rankings, Lanie needs a Performance Score of ~1197 in the final to replace her current lowest Performance Score. An 1197 equals a 62.50m toss (1117 Result Score), AND second place (80 Placing Score) in the final. She could also throw further than that and place lower, as you can see on this chart (I’ve highlighted yellow the required score she needs to up her average enough, and PINK anything above and beyond that score. Green is any other probable outcome, but wouldn’t be enough points to up her ranking to Top 32.).

Do the math on your own!

The numbers above are for women’s discus specifically, using this calculator (which was created using World Athletics Scoring Tables) to determine Result Scores (x axis, bottom row) based on potential distance (x axis, second row up, in meters). The y axis is Placing Score (furthest left column, scores pulled from Table 7.2 here), based on potential place in the final (second column in from left). All Performance Scores possible from 58m and 8th to 64.49m and victory (1cm below the 64.50m Olympic Standard that would negate all these Ranking Scores) are calculated based on individual equations in the middle. You can use this table’s values for any women’s discus thrower competing in the final (a B Category competition) on Thursday!

For Lanie specifically (and you can do this with your favorite athlete of the 12 women), I clicked on her name in the Road to Paris list to view her Top 5 results in the Qualification Period, and copied those values over to my own table. Then, I entered a hypothetical equation (=average(her specific Top 4+the hypothetical value she needs in the final to get a Ranking Score of 1141)) in the yellow highlighted cell, and tried a bunch of values from the larger table to get the number she needs. See below.

The final layer of World Rankings that makes predicting what might make an Olympic Team difficult is that other athletes in the world are constantly chasing their own points! So while 1141 was approximately 30th in the World on Tuesday, that number will probably keep creeping up as June 30th approaches, and other countries are also contesting their own Olympic Trials, with valuable points on the line and in the ring.

As we’ve already seen, anything can happen at the USATF Olympic Trials. I look forward to sharing all of the nerves with you as we watch the women’s Olympic discus team earn their Paris berths in TrackTown USA on Thursday at 4:50pm PST!